山东半岛一次强暴雨的分析和数值模拟   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  

周淑玲  吴增茂  闫丽凤 《高原气象》2008,27(5)

利用T213资料、常规观测资料和多普勒雷达资料,对2004年8月5日发生在山东半岛东部的一次大暴雨过程进行了数值模拟和分析,在模拟结果比较成功的基础上,利用细网格模拟资料重点分析了高、低空急流和850 hPa低压与暴雨的关系,以及山东半岛地形的动力作用。结果表明:暴雨强回波从南向北传播时强度逐渐增强,反映了中尺度对流系统的结构和发展;对流云团首先在低空急流中心左前方生成,与副热带高压边缘的西南暖湿气流有关,中尺度高空急流是伴随对流由强高空出流而形成,高、低空急流的耦合作用有利于强对流天气的维持和发展;在副热带高压西侧边界层激发出一个中β尺度低压,该低压形成后与暴雨区相伴移动,且移动路径与山东半岛东部地形分布有关,山东半岛地形对西南暖湿气流阻挡和绕流的动力作用是导致威海附近强暴雨的原因之一。  相似文献   

上海气温变化及城市化影响初步分析   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

穆海振  孔春燕  汤绪  柯晓新 《热带气象学报》2008,24(6):672-678

为研究在全球变化背景下上海市区气温变化规律和城市化进程对其影响,分析了上海市区气温对全球变暖的响应,对比了市区和郊区气温在不同气候背景下的变化趋势,采用与郊区台站对比法分析了上海市区气温城市化效应,研究了城市化进程与气温各分量长期变化趋势之间的关系,将高空与地面观测资料相结合,定量估算了城市化效应对平均气温的贡献,初步讨论了气温的城市化效应成因。研究结果表明：1873~2004年上海市区年平均气温的长期变化趋势为1.31 ℃/(100 a),在1921~1948年和1979~2004年两个时期增温明显,其中第二段增温强于第一段;与郊区站点相比,市区在降温期内降温最小,增温期内升温幅度最大;城市发展导致市区和郊区气温有显著差别且温差逐年加大,其中平均气温和最低气温在秋季的差别最大,最高气温市区和郊区之间差别在夏季最大;城市化进程加快了地面气温升高的速率,其中以最低气温最为明显;在1980年代城市化效应使上海市区年平均温度平均升高0.4 ℃,在1990年代平均升高1.1 ℃。  相似文献   

山峰加热效应的数值试验研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

安兴琴  胡隐樵  吕世华  左洪超 《高原气象》2008,27(2):286-292

已有的资料分析和理论研究表明,山峰加热效应是形成冬季兰州市白天脱地逆温的主要原因。本文利用中尺度数值模式MM5,从数值试验角度研究了兰州市白天温度场和环流场的结构特征。模拟结果表明:冬季,白天日出后的皋兰山峰相对于周围空气是一个热源,在环流场的配合下,皋兰山峰的暖空气向市区上空输送,与河谷温度较低的冷空气形成了白天的脱地逆温;理想"削山"试验的结果表明,山峰海拔越高的山体,加热效应越明显,山谷城市的大气逆温强度和稳定度随着山峰海拔高度的降低而减小。数值试验结果进一步验证和补充了观测和理论分析的结论。  相似文献   

一次人工增雨作业中CA—FCM与其他评估方案的比较研究     

房彬  ;肖辉  ;班显秀  ;宫蔚蔚 《辽宁气象》2008,(4):13-18

根据2002年4月5日河南省人工催化增雨作业数据,分别采用作业区域趋势对比双比分析评估方案、区域趋势相关回归评估方案、区域趋势协变量多元回归评估方案、FCM（浮动对比区历史回归）评估方案、以降水量为协变量的CA—FCM评估方案和以降水量与整层大气可降水量为协变量的CA—FCM评估方案进行效果评估。结果表明：协变量由降水量和整层大气降水量2个组成的CA—FCM方法,由于引入了不受催化影响的物理协变量作为控制因子．以及采用了聚类分析提高了对比区和影响区相关性,其评估效果最好,显著水平高于0．05;其他评估方法评估效果较差。  相似文献   

非均匀下垫面陆面过程参数化问题研究进展   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

乔娟  张强  张杰 《干旱气象》2008,26(1):73-78

非均匀下垫面对陆面过程模式应用有着重要影响。若将下垫面一概视为均一,在很多情况下会影响模式模拟的准确性。本文详细介绍了目前非均匀地表陆面过程参数化的方法(Mosaic法、统计—动力法和其它方法),初步分析了这些参数化方法的缺陷,并简单探讨了陆面参数尺度转换问题,最后对今后研究的问题给出了建议,其中特别提出要寻找适当方法实现陆面物理量不同尺度间的转换。  相似文献   

SMIP2试验对亚洲夏季风的模拟能力及其可预报性的分析   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

施洪波  周天军  万慧 《大气科学》2008,32(1):36-52

利用参加第二次季节预测模式比较计划（Phase 2 of the Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project,简称SMIP2）的五个大气环流模式的输出结果,比较了这些模式对亚洲夏季降水的模拟能力,并讨论了大气环流模式在季节尺度上对亚洲夏季风的可预报性。结果表明,各模式能够较好地模拟亚洲夏季降水的大尺度分布特征。除了模拟的东亚夏季降水异常经验正交函数分解第一模态（EOF1）的时间系数与观测之间的相关系数较低之外,多数模式可以大致再现东亚、南亚和西太平洋夏季降水异常EOF1及其对应的时间系数。分析表明,热带地区有很好的可预报性,北半球副热带地区的可预报性尽管也较好,但比热带地区要低,南半球热带以外地区的可预报性较差,陆地上的可预报性比海洋上低。在热带和北半球副热带地区,由海温强迫所产生的较大外部方差对此地高可预报性有很大的贡献。与正常年份相比,模式在强El Ni?o年和强La Ni?a年表现出较高的可预报性,在南亚和印度洋地区大多数模式在El Ni?o年比La Ni?a年产生了更好的可预报性,在中西太平洋区域El Ni?o年可预报性的高值中心较La Ni?a年位置偏西。  相似文献   

Misconceptions about the Hubble recession law     

Wilfred H. Sorrell 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2009,323(2):205-211

Almost all astronomers now believe that the Hubble recession law was directly inferred from astronomical observations. It turns out that this common belief is completely false. Those models advocating the idea of an expanding universe are ill-founded on observational grounds. This means that the Hubble recession law is really a working hypothesis. One alternative to the Hubble recession law is the tired-light hypothesis originally proposed by Zwicky (Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 15:773, 1929). This hypothesis leads to a universe that is an eternal cosmos continually evolving without beginning or end. Such a universe exists in a dynamical state of virial equilibrium. Observational studies of the redshift-magnitude relation for Type Ia supernovae in distant galaxies might provide the best observational test for a tired-light cosmology. The present study shows that the model Hubble diagram for a tired-light cosmology gives good agreement with the supernovae data for redshifts in the range 0<z<2. This observational test of a static cosmology shows that the real universe is not necessarily undergoing expansion nor acceleration. An erratum to this article can be found at  相似文献   

Interpreting the transmission windows of distant quasars     

A. Maselli  A. Ferrara  S. Gallerani 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,395(4):1925-1933

We propose the apparent shrinking criterion (ASC) to interpret the spatial extent, R _w, of transmitted flux windows in the absorption spectra of high- z quasars. The ASC can discriminate between the two regimes in which R _w corresponds either to the physical size,   R _{H  ii}   , of the quasar H  ii region or to the distance,   R ^max_w  , at which the transmitted flux drops to  =0.1  and a Gunn–Peterson (GP) trough appears. In the first case [H  ii region (HR) regime], one can determine the intergalactic medium mean H  i fraction,   x _H I  ; in the second [proximity region (PR) regime], the value of R _w allows one to measure the local photoionization rate and the local enhancement of the photoionization rate,  Γ_G  , due to nearby/intervening galaxies. The ASC has been tested against radiative transfer+smoothed particle hydrodynamics numerical simulations, and applied to a sample of 15 high-   z ( z > 5.8  ) quasar spectra. All sample quasars are found to be in the PR regime; hence, their observed spectral properties (inner flux profile, extent of transmission window) cannot reliably constrain the value of   x _{H  i}   . Four sample quasars show evidence for a local enhancement (up to 50 per cent) in the local photoionization rate possibly produced by a galaxy overdensity. We discuss the possible interpretations and uncertainties of this result.  相似文献   

The non-linear probability distribution function in models with local primordial non-Gaussianity     

Tsz Yan Lam  Ravi K. Sheth 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,395(3):1743-1748

We use the spherical evolution approximation to investigate non-linear evolution from the non-Gaussian initial conditions characteristic of the local f _nl model. We provide an analytic formula for the non-linearly evolved probability distribution function (PDF) of the dark matter which shows that the underdense tail of the non-linear PDF in the f _nl model should differ significantly from that for Gaussian initial conditions. Measurements of the underdense tail in numerical simulations may be affected by discreteness effects, and we use a Poisson counting model to describe this effect. Once this has been accounted, our model is in good quantitative agreement with the simulations. In principle, our calculation is an important first step in programs which seek to reconstruct the shape of the initial PDF from observations of large-scale structures in the Lyα forest and the galaxy distribution at later times.  相似文献   

The Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna ultra-high energy neutrino detector: Design, performance, and sensitivity for the 2006–2007 balloon flight     

《Astroparticle Physics》2009,32(1):10-41

We present a comprehensive report on the experimental details of the Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna (ANITA) long-duration balloon payload, including the design philosophy and realization, physics simulations, performance of the instrument during its first Antarctic flight completed in January of 2007, and expectations for the limiting neutrino detection sensitivity.  相似文献